Student Enrollment Projections

PASA conducts in-depth studies that ultimately yield enrollment projections for the next decade.  These projections (by attendance zone, by planning unit, by subdivision) are based on a number research topics, including:

  • Projecting the timing and location of new housing construction collected by primary source data gathering  
  • Studying and projecting regeneration of homes with younger families in specific regions of the district
  • Geocoding the locations of current students for short-term enrollment management
  • Developing ratios of students per home to understand the varying densities of students in each neighborhood
  • Evaluating charter and private school enrollment and its impact on district enrollment
  • Capitalizing on multi-decades of experience to draw parallels with similar situations in other parts of the State

Long-Range Facilities Planning

PASA relates projected future student enrollment to the capacity of each school to outline when and where new schools might be needed in the future.

  • Provide in-depth future planning that minimizes disruption of student movement and maximizes facility usage
  • Outline a step-by-step analysis of needs for current and future schools
  • Examine and suggest possible site selection and appropriate timing to support fiscally responsible purchases for new schools
  • Assist districts in planning attendance zones such that short-term decisions align with long-term growth
  • Offer internal consistency in planning that supports evolving educational landscape, even as administrations and boards change

Bond Election Planning

Successful bond elections require clear communication to the public of the realistic potential for future growth.  PASA provides dependable, transparent data on future growth and how that relates to the school district’s current capability to accommodate student population.

  • Provide dependable, transparent data of future growth that relates to the school district’s current capability to accommodate the student population
  • Present overviews of the projections, methodology, results, and capacity analysis to a bond committee that explain and support future growth
  • Prepare detailed data that supports timely and fiscally responsible land purchases for future school sites

Attendance Zone And Long Range Planning

School Districts use PASA’s enrollment projections to realign attendance zones for effective short-term and long-term utilization.

This map illustrates an example of attendance zones and how they could change over time with the opening of new schools. District administrators can use such tools to follow a long range plan when making short term decisions, in order to provide as much stability as possible for the students in these high-growth areas.

PASA can collaborate with boundary committees and/or District Administration to develop maps and projections for multiple attendance zone options.  Considering multiple options shows the public and the Board of Trustees the many factors involved in realigning attendance zones, as well as the benefits and challenges that were weighed in making a final recommendation.


  • Mapping of students and mapping of critical data for visual presentations
  • Aerial imagery of existing, planned, and potential development
  • Gathering of permit data, future thoroughfare plans, and other factors critical to development
  • Geocoding of students’ addresses by place of residence and computer-mapping of students by grade, grade group, LEP/bilingual status, gifted, etc. With this accurate mapping of students, polygons can be delineated for special program planning, as well as for attendance zones, and/or bus transportation purposes

Geographic Mapping and Data Analysis

Geographical Information System (GIS) is a powerful modeling and analysis tool that connects data to geographic location.  The system integrates a range of information into a spatial layout which can facilitate mathematical and statistical analyses to extract a wide range of results.  It has become the standard tool for the demographics industry.

At PASA, we utilize this powerful tool as the foundation of our data modeling and analysis.  Our process is summarized below.

  • Information Gathering
    • Gathering of land use data, parcel ownership, recent ownership changes, updated aerial imagery, platting and future development data, concept plans, thoroughfare plans, and other geographic details unique to each district
    • Geocoding of students’ addresses by place of residence
  • Integrate each data item into a comprehensive GIS system
  • Analyze data geographically
  • Study past and present student distribution including student movement trends, student densities, student ratios per home
  • Incorporate all aspects of development into the model, including economic trends, commercial and industrial demand, governmental policies and regulations
  • Project future housing and student distribution over time to facilitate long-range attendance zone planning, long-range facilities planning, bond election planning and more
  • Report
    • Summarize enrollment projections using maps, charts, graphs, and text
    • Provide online interactive mapping products